The next is the transcript of an interview with Kevin Hassett, Nationwide Financial Council director, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on July 6, 2025.
WEIJA JIANG: We flip now to Kevin Hassett. He’s the director of the Nationwide Financial Council and considered one of President Trump’s high advisors. He is additionally very fashionable on that driveway the place I am often alongside a few dozen reporters. So, Kevin, thanks a lot in your time this morning. I need to begin with commerce, as a result of there is a massive deadline arising on Wednesday. As you understand, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that the President introduced again in April is ready to finish. To date, the US has introduced just a few offers; the UK, Vietnam, and also you’re inching nearer to a last settlement with China. Do you anticipate to get any extra offers completed with America’s largest buying and selling companions by Wednesday?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah. First, I do should take- take a pause and share your ideas and prayers with the folks of Texas. It is an unimaginable, heartbreaking story, and Kristi Noem and the President have instructed the federal authorities to throw every little thing they have at serving to the survivors and serving to clear up that place. So, anyway, I am actually heartbroken immediately to see these tales, and I would like you to know that within the White Home, everyone is placing each effort they will into serving to the folks of Texas immediately. On commerce, there’s going to be fairly a bit of stories this week. And, I believe, the headline of the information is that there are going to be offers which can be finalized. There are a complete quantity that Jameson Greer has negotiated with overseas governments, after which they will be letters which can be despatched to international locations saying, this is how we predict it should go, as a result of the offers aren’t superior sufficient. And the headline goes to be that international locations are agreeing around the globe to open their markets as much as our merchandise, and to permit us to place some type of tariff on their merchandise once they come into the US. At precisely what the numbers might be, might be issues that you will discover out within the information this week,.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, you stated there are going to be offers. For these actually necessary buying and selling companions, if there’s not a deal by Wednesday, is the President going to increase this pause?
KEVIN HASSETT: , america is all the time keen to speak to everyone about every little thing that is occurring on the earth. And there are deadlines, and there are issues which can be shut, and so possibly issues will push again the dead- previous the deadline, or possibly they want- ultimately, the President’s going to make that judgment.
WEIJA JIANG: And also you additionally talked about these letters that can begin going out tomorrow, in response to President Trump. He stated about 10 to 12 international locations will obtain them. Do you- are you able to inform us who’s going to get one and what they are saying?
KEVIN HASSETT: As a result of- as a result of, once more, the a part of the letter that might be taking place proper is that we’re near a deal, we’re not likely glad with the progress that we’re making on the deal, and so we’re saying, okay, superb, we’ll ship a letter, however possibly you get a deal on the final minute too. Till we see every little thing that performs out, I believe that we have to simply maintain our fireplace and look ahead to the information this week.
WEIJA JIANG: Is it honest to say that these notices are going to go to our smaller buying and selling companions, as you negotiate with our larger ones?
KEVIN HASSETT: I believe that it might be that it will be each. But in addition, remember, that when now we have nice commerce offers, our smaller buying and selling companions may turn into a lot larger buying and selling companions. And that is, I believe, one of many explanation why international locations are racing to set offers up with us forward of the deadline.
WEIJA JIANG: I’ve to ask you concerning the deadlines, Kevin, to make these offers, since you simply talked about you are all the time open. The president stated there’s not likely any flexibility left between now and Wednesday. Lower than two weeks in the past, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that offers can be wrapped up by Labor Day. So, I ponder, you understand, if- how can firms plan if the purpose posts maintain transferring? How can international locations negotiate if they do not even know the way a lot time they’ve left?
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Nicely, the tough outlines of the offers have gotten clear to everyone, as a result of now we have some offers just like the UK, and the Vietnam deal which can be beginning to be, you understand, I assume, pointers for what may occur. However, one of many issues that we’re seeing that is actually fascinating to me, is that individuals are simply on-shoring manufacturing of the US at a report price. As we have had report job creation, report capital spending, and that is even forward of the Massive, Lovely Invoice. And so, I believe what’s taking place is that individuals are responding to President Trump’s, you understand, potential threats to have excessive tariffs on international locations by transferring their exercise right here into the US, which is creating jobs, greater than 2 million jobs, since he took workplace, and elevating wages. , wage development is heading up in the direction of the actually, actually excessive pinnacles that we noticed in 2017. And so, I believe there is a race proper now to get exercise into the US. And, partially, that race has been kicked off by President Trump.
WEIJA JIANG: I keep in mind after these reciprocal tariffs have been introduced, you instructed me that there have been about 15 offers that international locations have been bringing to the President. How shut, in the event you may give us any quantity in any respect, what quantity are we going to see this week?
KEVIN HASSETT: Yeah, you will have- you will should get that from Jameson and the President. I believe that, you understand, we have seen a lot of offers which have been finalized by our negotiators, after which the President finds issues that might make them higher. And so, it’s- I am not going to get forward of the President on the variety of offers.
WEIJA JIANG: Okay, thanks, Kevin. We’ll look out for that. I need to transfer now to the One Massive, Lovely Invoice that, in fact, the President signed into legislation on Independence Day. You could have it, and now you need to pay for it. And there is a consensus that this invoice provides tremendously to the deficit. I do know that you’re so accustomed to these numbers. The Yale Funds Lab estimates it is going to add $3 trillion to the debt. The Tax Basis says this tax portion of the invoice may additionally add $3 trillion to the deficit. The Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds, which elements in curiosity on the debt, says it may add as much as $5 trillion over the following decade. And on this very program, even Speaker Johnson answered within the affirmative when requested if this invoice would add over $4 trillion to the deficit. I do know that the administration says the invoice will really shrink the deficit by $1.5 trillion. Assist me perceive why there may be such a drastic distinction between your quantity and all these others.
KEVIN HASSETT: Nicely- nicely, initially, let’s keep in mind that science will not be democracy. Reality will not be democracy. Our estimates are based mostly on modeling that we used final time, once I was Chairman of the Council of Financial Advisers to say what would occur if we had a invoice, how a lot development we might get. And we stated, and we have been criticized soundly, that we might get 3% development. And we even had the actually technical macroeconomic fashions that stated that we might get 3% development. We run the identical fashions via this tax invoice, it is even higher. And what we’re seeing is that in the event you get 3% development once more, then that is $4 trillion extra in income than the CBO and these different our bodies are giving us credit score for. They’ve been incorrect previously, they usually’re being incorrect once more, in our perception. However, the factor that disappoints me is that if I put out a mannequin and I say, hey, this is what is going on to occur, we’ll get 3% development. After which it seems it is 1.5% development, then, as an instructional economist, as a scientist, then it is my responsibility to say, what did I get incorrect? What did my mannequin miss? These folks aren’t doing that. And that is the factor that I discover disappointing, as a result of we put peer-reviewed tutorial stuff on the desk, stated we’ll get that 3% development, after which we received it proper final time, and we consider we’ll get it proper this time. However, in the event you assume that 1.8% development is what is going on to occur over the following 10 years, then it is best to agree with the CBO quantity. However, there’s one other a part of the CBO quantity that you’ll want to fear about. And that’s that if we do not cross the invoice, that it is the largest tax hike in historical past. And with that massive tax hike, that in fact, we might have a recession. The CEA says that we would have a few 4% drop in GDP and lose 9 million jobs. If we had a 4% drop in GDP and we misplaced 9 million jobs, what would occur to the deficit? And so, I do not assume that the CBO has a really sturdy report. I do not assume these locations have a really sturdy report. And what they should do is get again to the fundamentals of taking a look at macroeconomic fashions. There is a actually well-known macroeconomist at Harvard named Jim Inventory. They need to return and browse every little thing Jim Inventory has written for the final 15 years, and fold these into their fashions, after which possibly we may speak.
WEIJA JIANG: I need to speak too, Kevin, about one other quantity that I do know you and the President disagree with, however that Democrats and lots of Republicans are apprehensive about, and that is the CBO’s projection that as many as 12 million People may lose Medicaid protection due to this legislation. What’s the NEC’s estimate for the way many individuals may lose protection?
KEVIN HASSETT: Nicely- nicely, yeah. Let’s- let’s unbundle that a little bit bit. As a result of, first, on the CBO protection, so what are we doing? So, what we’re doing is we’re asking for a piece requirement. However, the work requirement is that you’ll want to be searching for work, and even doing volunteer work, and also you needn’t do it till your children are 14 or older. And so, the concept that that is going to trigger an enormous hemorrhaging in availability of insurance coverage, does not make loads of sense to us. After which, in the event you take a look at the CBO numbers, in the event you take a look at the large numbers, they are saying that individuals are going to lose insurance coverage. About 5 million of these are individuals who produce other insurance coverage. They’re individuals who have two kinds of insurance coverage. And so, due to this fact, in the event that they lose one, they’re nonetheless insured. And so, the CBO numbers on that aspect do not make any sense to us in any respect. However, on the opposite aspect, return to 2017 once we had work necessities for Obamacare, they stated that we lose about 4 million insured between 2017 and 2019, and about double that over the following 10 years. And, in actual fact, the variety of insured went up. It went up fairly a bit, by greater than 10 million over these two years, as a result of the underside line is, one of the simplest ways to get insurance coverage is to get a job. And we have a Massive, Lovely Invoice that is going to create loads of job creation and loads of insurance coverage, and the CBO is simply not accounting for that. And once more, they want to return and take a look at all of the issues that they received incorrect. You notice that they are underestimating Medicaid spending by 20%. They need to look again in any respect the issues they received incorrect, and clarify what they will do to get it proper sooner or later, and to do a greater job. And in the event that they try this, we’ll take them extra severely. However proper now, I do not assume any critical thinker may take them severely, as a result of they’ve completed so incorrect, and incorrect for thus lengthy. Even back- in the event you return to when President Obama handed Obamacare, they received each single quantity there incorrect about how many individuals would get personal insurance coverage and the way few folks would get Medicaid, and so forth. And so, their report on this modeling area is about as dangerous because it’s doable to be. The truth is, you could possibly, type of, roll the roulette wheel and provide you with a greater set of numbers, higher historical past, monitor report than CBO.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin, what concerning the enhanced subsidies? Is that quantity incorrect too? That the ACA permits about $705 for folks to assist pay for his or her medical insurance. That does not sound just like the waste, fraud, and abuse that I do know you and the President have talked about eliminating. That simply seems like individuals who can not afford protection, and now it is going to be much more so with the subsidies gone.
KEVIN HASSETT: Proper. Nicely- nicely, in the event you’re- in the event you’re taking a look at the- the change within the tax on the suppliers, which is one thing that has been a key speaking level for the Democrats, they are saying that that is going to shut down rural hospitals. What has occurred is that, slightly than let the states- the states have this recreation the place they offer a greenback to a hospital after which the federal authorities matches the greenback, after which the state taxes a few of the greenback away. In different phrases, that now we have an settlement with the states that they will match, however then they’ve this they’ve this trick the place they tax the hospitals after they offer them the cash, so actually, it is the federal authorities giving them the cash. And that is why we have been overspending Medicaid by 20% since this trick began taking place. And so, what we have completed is that we have put a haircut on that. However, we have additionally put $50 billion right into a belief fund to make it possible for the agricultural hospitals are there to deal with the sick. So, I believe this can be a prudent type. It is sound budgetary politics. And I believe that no person’s going to lose their insurance coverage.
WEIJA JIANG: Kevin Hassett, we’ll watch for the way that ages. Thanks very a lot. Actually respect —
KEVIN HASSETT: – And if I get it incorrect, we’ll verify, and we’ll speak about why I received it incorrect. I promise.
WEIJA JIANG: Thanks. We’ll have you ever again. Thanks very a lot, Kevin.
